By Dimitrios D. Thomakos, Platon Monokroussos, Konstantinos I. Nikolopoulos

This publication offers a radical assessment of the new monetary situation from the viewpoint of either practitioners and teachers specialising within the area.

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On the monetary front, extraordinary accommodation was required to stabilize the global financial system. Central banks led by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England engaged in concerted efforts that served to both expand money supply, but, equally important, to warehouse assets via outright purchases that allowed price discovery at levels that broke the vicious downward economic spiral. Furthermore, in the United States primarily and the United Kingdom secondarily this Causes, Effects and Prospects of the Great Recession 15 was accompanied by upfront fiscal accommodation as well as rigorous bank recapitalization.

The lessons and implications should also be interpreted under this light. 2 Macroeconomic and institutional asymmetries in the euro area prior to the Great Recession As it applies to the euro area, this framework suggests that structural macroeconomic and institutional asymmetries existed, and with a growing tendency, in the long period that preceded the Great Recession that started in 2008. This is almost definitional: the single market was (and remains) incomplete, particularly in regards to financial services; policy making is bound by the local political economies with very little centralized power and governance at the EU level; fiscal management was overwhelmingly local, to mention but a few components.

In Europe, the euro area is facing a real danger of “hysteresis”, with unemployment at all-time highs and firms reluctant to invest. Last but not least, secular stagnation in major developed economies such as the United States is a very likely, if not certain, outcome within such a global context. Irrespective of the exact realized path, this global backdrop is almost certain to see market and economic volatility re-emerge from under central bank suppression and offer a fertile if challenging environment to global macro practitioners.

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