By Ph.D. Rob Johnston

Identifies and describes stipulations and variables that negatively impact intelligence research. Investigates analytic tradition, method, blunders, and failure in the Intelligence neighborhood. makes use of an utilized anthropological method that comes with interviews, direct and player remark, and concentration teams. incorporates a bibliography.

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Scenario development, red teams, competing hypotheses, they’re all too time consuming. We’ve got Bayesian tools, simulations, all kinds of advanced methods, but when am I supposed to do any of that? It takes all my time to keep up with the daily reporting as it is. I don’t have time to worry about formal analytic methods. I’ve got my own system. It’s more intuitive and a lot faster. 15 CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and Incentives The shift in the analytic production cycle is not only reflected in the products and processes but also in the way analysts perceive the system by which intelligence organizations reward and promote employees.

They don’t want to be spoon fed. I’ve never had a customer tell me they want more to read. Our customers want to avoid surprise. As long as we keep them from being surprised, I don’t care if we do daily or long-term production. I don’t think they care either. 14 FINDINGS Finding: Focus on Current Production The present daily production cycle and the focus on current intelligence also affect group interactions and the analytic process. Group Interactions: It doesn’t matter if I’m writing a piece myself or if I’m coordinating a piece with some group.

There is no agreed-upon analytical schema, and the analyst must primarily use his belief Bruce D. Berkowitz and Allan E. Goodman, Strategic Intelligence for American National Security, 85. See Chapter Four for more on the intelligence cycle. 14 Lisa Krizan, Intelligence Essentials for Everyone. 15 See the apprendix for a listing of the literature. , The Central Intelligence Agency: A Photographic History. 19 J. R. Thompson, R. Hopf-Weichel, and R. Geiselman, The Cognitive Bases of Intelligence Analysis.

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