By Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Brian Nichiporuk, Thomas S. Szayna
Offers an analytic framework and strategy for the intelligence research of abnormal battle (IW) environments which could function the root for IW intelligence curriculum improvement efforts. Defines IW when it comes to stylized events: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. offers a close assessment of IW-relevant security coverage and approach files and an inventory of proper doctrinal courses.
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Additional info for Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
597–617). 2) of “Countering Global Insurgency,” dated November 30, 2004. 32 For example, the Multi-National Corps–Iraq conducts operations against the local Al Qaeda aﬃliate, the Al Qaeda Jihad Organization in the Land of Two Rivers. A Framework for Assessing Irregular Warfare 39 ple, cordon and search operations can ﬂush out individual terrorists or small cells from their safe havens; conventional ground forces can conduct targeted raids against terrorist targets; or longer-range strike capabilities, such as aircraft, cruise missiles, and unmanned combat aerial vehicles, can be employed.
Agent-based rational choice or expected utility models. A family of models—agent-based rational choice models—has been developed to provide computationally based forecasts of complex, multi-actor, real-world political issues such as IW situations. These models incorporate insights from spatial politics, social choice theory, game theory, and expected utility theory in a form that enables policy-relevant fore14 To be sure, and as will be discussed, other states can be important stakeholders and seek to inﬂuence internal conﬂicts; the distinction is relative to interstate, state-versus-state conﬂicts.
200–202). S. , February 2006. S. Army Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate, “The Continuum of Operations and Stability Operations,” brieﬁng, Ft. S. Army Combined Arms Center, 2006. , August 2006. S. S. Special Operations Command Center for Knowledge and Futures, Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, 2006, p. 11. 1 summarizes the evolution in DoD thinking about IW missions and activities. 1 Irregular Warfare Missions and Activities Mission/Activity Counterinsurgency Foreign internal defense (Support to) insurgency Unconventional warfare Stability/SSTRO Strategic communications Counterterrorism Psychological operations Civil-military operations Information operations Intelligence/counterintelligence QDR 2/06 X X X X DoD Sourcea CADD JCA Brieﬁng Lexicon 2006 8/06 X X X X X (X) X (X) (X) (X) MSC 8/06 X X X X X X X X X X IW JOC 9/07 X X X X X X X X X X X NOTES: (1) JOC capability areas denoted with “(X)” are Tier 3 Special Operations and Information Operations JCAs that support IW rather than being direct IW missions.
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