By David T. Moore
Analysts and analysts alone create intelligence. Although technological marvels assist analysts by cataloging and presenting data, information and evidence in new ways, they do not do analysis. To be most effective, analysts need an overarching, reflective framework to add structured reasoning to sound, intuitivethinking. "Critical thinking" provides such a framework and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence analysis process. Analysts who adopt critical thinking stand to improve their analysis. This paper defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entireintelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit.
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Additional resources for Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (Second Edition)
Cited hereafter as Allison and Zelikow, Essence of Decision. Raymond Garthoff also notes this to be the case. See Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 23. – 30 – Cuba” that led to the tasking of the U-2 flight on 14 October (the 70 track of which is shown in figure 8). Also contributing to the determination that the deployed missiles were SS-4 MRBMs was information transmitted to the British and American intelligence services by Oleg Penkovsky. While Penkovsky’s espionage apparently did not warn the Americans that the Soviets were about to deploy offensive missiles in Cuba, he is credited with – among other things – providing technical information about the 71 missiles.
A speculative – and admittedly simplified – critical comparison, again using Paul and Elder’s model (summarized in table 3) illustrates how critical thinking also reveals much about who stood to gain and who stood to lose in the crisis. Castro. Castro found his country under attack from the United States – both directly through economic sanctions and indirectly by 93 Batista loyalists living in Florida. The previous year the United States had launched an invasion attempt at the Bay of Pigs – which was repulsed.
S. less accurately, 45 the American predictions were inaccurate. It could have been worse. As Gil Merom writes, the Soviets might James G. Blight and David A. , Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis (London, UK: Frank Cass, 1998), 22. Emphasis in original. ” 43 Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 29. 44 Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 28, 58. S. Intelligence never did reach a correct conclusion. S. Intelligence,” 28). 45 Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997), 45.
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