By Hayek F.A.

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But none of them get over the real difficulty — namely: Why do the forces tending to restore equilibrium become temporarily ineffective and why do they only come into action again when it is too late? They all try to explain this phenomenon E 65 MONETARY THEORY AND THE TRADE CYCLE by a further, usually tacit, assumption, which one of the advocates of these theories, Mr. C. O. Hardy,* has himself put forward as their common idea, by which, in my opinion, he brings out, with the utmost clarity, their fundamental weakness.

O. Morgenstern's recent categorical denial (Wirtschqftsprognose, Untersuchung ihrer Voranssetzungen und MGglich- keiten, Wien, 1928) of the possibility of forecasting seems to be due only to the fact that he demands more from forecasting than is justifiable. Even the ability to forecast a hailstorm would not be useless - but, on the contrary, very valuable - if the latter could thereupon be averted by firing rockets at the clouds 1 36 THE PROBLEM OF THE TRADE CYCLE having an important bearing on the Trade Cycle, our position is a peculiar one.

Esp. p. 217. 56 NON-MONETARY THEORIES OF TRADE CYCLE a decisive place in its argument, and we should therefore be well advised to begin by seeing how the various theories try to deal with the phenomenon in question. Apart from the monetary theories, which, as will be shown later, can only be considered satisfactory if they explain that phenomenon, there are two groups of explanations which can be entirely disregarded. In the first place there is nothing to be gained from an examination of those theories which seek to explain cyclical fluctuations by corresponding cyclical changes in certain external circumstances, while merely using the unquestionable methods of equilibrium theory to explain the economic phenomena which follow from these changes.

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