By Paul K. Davis

An analytical framework and technique for capability-area reports is defined, in addition to new instruments to help services research and strategic-level protection making plans within the safeguard division and the companies. BCOT generates and monitors initial thoughts, and the Portfolio-Analysis software (PAT) is used to guage strategies that move screening. The thoughts are illustrated with functions to worldwide Strike and Ballistic Missile protection. suggestions are made for additional defense-planning learn.

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Ultimately, the lesson is that a name-level scenario, such as a “war with Country X,” with a single set of assumptions is a poor basis for planning, even about a possible new war with Country X (Davis, 1994, 2002)! ” Let us now turn to the issue of taking a broad view of what the factors and uncertainties involve. Including All Relevant Dimensions. * Interestingly, it is something with which at least some defense analysts have long been acquainted. Some tangible examples may illustrate how important emphasizing these aspects has been.

Given such a decision (perhaps recommended to the SecDef by DoD’s Deputies Advisory Working Group), the next step is to identify scenarios representative of each of the regions for which capability is to be pursued. These become de facto requirements.

S. 7 • Top Secret studies on strategic nuclear command and control, conducted by the Joint Chiefs’ Weapons Systems Evaluation Group (WSEG), worked through the complex challenge of assuring the ability to command and control the nuclear retaliatory forces after even a bolt-from-the-blue attack that destroyed many communication mechanisms. 1 Some Spectacularly Successful Capability Developments Capability Sea-based airpower for fleet defense, strike, surveillance, etc. Projection of ground forces from ships into defended land areas System Aircraft carriers Amphibious operations Comment Developed despite lack of interest by and opposition of the “Battleship Navy” Conceived and developed by visionary Marine colonel Precision fires Laser-guided bomb (LGB) Resisted consistently by and joint direct attack Service PPBE processes and munition (JDAM) those adhering to a peculiarly strict interpretation of acquisition regulations Maritime operations in Littoral combat ship Scorned initially but littoral areas championed by Chief of Naval Operations Detection and tracking of J-STARS Moved directly into field from moving ground targets R&D during first Gulf War Unmanned surveillance Global Hawk and Resisted by Air Force and targeting Predator Tactical mobility Stryker Championed by Army Chief of Staff amid controversy Strike, penetration F-117, B-2 Championed by Air Force Chief of Staff and DDR&E Precision navigation, Global Positioning System Championed by DDR&E and precision fires (GPS) Secretary of Defense and a few Air Force and Navy leaders Early warning of ballistic- DSP (early warning Resisted by most, due missile attack satellites) to legacy programs, but supported by Air Force Chief of Staff Submarine-based nuclear SSBNs (nuclear-armed Imposed on Navy by president retaliatory forces ballistic-missile submarines) Assured dissemination Strategic nuclear Involved largely separate of emergency action command and control system, thereby avoiding messages, even in surprise during Cold War many sources of friction attack NOTE: PPBE = planning, programming, budgeting, and execution; DDR&E = Director, Defense Research and Engineering.

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