By Richards J. Heuer
This quantity pulls jointly and republishes, with a few enhancing, updating, and additions, articles written in the course of 1978-86 for inner use in the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. the data is comparatively undying and nonetheless proper to the endless quest for larger research. The articles are in line with reviewing cognitive psychology literature touching on how humans procedure info to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous info. Richard Heur has chosen the experiments and findings that appear such a lot appropriate to intelligence research and so much wanting verbal exchange to intelligence analysts. He then interprets the technical reviews into language that intelligence analysts can comprehend and interpreted the relevance of those findings to the issues intelligence analysts face.
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Extra resources for Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
In use for almost 100 years, today’s limpet mines include sophisticated antitamper devices to hinder their removal. • Advanced land mines. Whereas in the past, land mines were “dumb” systems that were buried in the ground, today’s advanced mines—usually emplaced above ground—have sensors and can attack targets from several tens of meters distance. • Night-vision devices. Although not a weapon per se, modern nightvision devices provide signiﬁcant tactical advantages to small units operating in darkness.
The analysis considers both procedural controls, such as those established internationally under the Wassenaar Arrangement,5 and technical controls that might limit the functionality of a weapon that had been diverted from legitimate sources. Technical controls would exploit the growing use of electronics in most new weapons. Such limitations seem most plausible when the weapon system inherently relies upon a satellite navigation system —most commonly, the Global Positioning System (GPS),6 but potentially the similar Russian or European systems.
This assessment, which is presented in Chapter Three, included two elements: 1. The assessment ﬁrst investigated potential terrorist attack scenarios and the value of new weapons in those scenarios to explore the beneﬁts of particular weapons to terrorists. Some of these attacks can be described brieﬂy, since they are simple variations on current terrorist capabilities—for example, assassinating a political ﬁgure by using an improved sniper riﬂe. Others are unfamiliar and therefore require a longer description.
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