By Ephraim Kam
Ephraim Kam observes shock assault in the course of the eyes of its sufferer with a purpose to comprehend the explanations of the victim's failure to expect the arriving of battle. Emphasing the mental point of struggle, Kam lines the habit of the sufferer at a variety of useful degrees and from numerous issues of view with a view to study the problems and errors that let a country to be taken unexpectedly. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming conflict are extra advanced than the other factor of strategic estimation, related to such interdependent components as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational hindrances, and political in addition to army constraints.
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Extra resources for Surprise attack: the victim's perspective
At the strategic level surprise regarding how the attack is carried out occurs when the means and methods used by the enemy render its military operation more feasible than expected. The victim's perception of the future battlefield may be wrong if he misjudges critical cOlnponents such as the nature of the anticipated conflict (clandestine activity, guerrilla warfare, conventional fighting, or nuclear war), the size and type of forces employed, the doctrine and tactics used, and the weapon systems and technological capabilities involved.
Ill). In another common instance the victim finds it difficult to pinpoint the timing of the attack because the enemy's own schedule has changed. Whaley (1969, p. 177; 1976, p. 4) found that of sixty-seven strategic surprises, the attack actually began on schedule in only twenty-six. Surprise related to the timing of an attack is a matter of degree as well. If the victim thinks of the possibility of war in terms of many months or years, as was the case with Israel in 1973, the surprise may be relatively great, since his military preparedness is at a low leveL} In fact such a case comes close to misjudging whether war will occur at all.
Another problem is that a terrain analysis that proved correct a few years ago may prove misleading today if the enelny has ill the interim developed a means of overcoming the obstacle. S. Congress, 1946a, p. 234). The same mistake was made by the French, who believed in 1940 that. the Ardennes were impassable (Hinsley, 1979, pp. 128-129). And the British command in Singapore believed in 1941 that a Japanese landing on the mainland in Johore with the object of launching an attack on Singapore Island would, owing to the nature of the ground to be crossed and the thick jungle, constitute such a difficult military operation that the Japanese would never attempt it on a large scale (Kirby, 1957, pp.
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