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Assuming an average 10% learning ratio,7 CSP investment costs would fall by about 50% from 2010 to 2020, as cumulative capacities would double seven times according to the vision proposed in this roadmap – if all stakeholders undertake the actions it recommends. Electricity 7 costs would decrease even faster thanks to progressively greater capacity factors, making CSP technology competitive with conventional technologies for peak and intermediate loads in the sunniest countries by about 2020. This perspective is fully consistent with the potential for improvement for the various technologies identified in the next section.
Technology Roadmaps Concentrating Solar Power be an ample market for CSP with peak and intermediate loads, and no need to rush into baseload production. The US Department of Energy has set an objective for its CSP programme to reach competitiveness with fossil fuels by 2015 for intermediate loads, at around USD 100/MWh, and by 2020 for base loads, at around USD 50/MWh. According to the evolution of levelised electricity costs envisioned in this roadmap (Figure 12), competitiveness is more likely to be achieved by 2020 for intermediate loads and 2025 to 2030 for base loads.
CO2 could be directly captured from flue gases at coal power plants, and recycled in a solar-enhanced gaseous or liquid fuel. Syngas can also be used in the well-known watergas shift process to give H2 and CO2, which can be separated easily, or for producing liquid synthetic transportation fuels (as well as methanol and ammonia) through commercially available FischerTropsch processes. Solar pyrolysis or gasification of biomass would greatly reduce the CO2 emissions involved in the manufacturing of biofuels.
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