By Isabelle Duyvesteyn, Ben de Jong, Joop van Reijn

This quantity discusses the demanding situations the longer term holds for various elements of the intelligence strategy and for businesses operating within the box.

The major concentration of Western intelligence providers is not any longer at the intentions and features of the Soviet Union and its allies. in its place, at this time, there's a plethora of threats and difficulties that deserve cognizance. a few of these difficulties are temporary and most likely acute, corresponding to terrorism. Others, comparable to the exhaustion of traditional assets, are longer-term and by means of nature frequently more challenging to foresee of their implications.

This booklet analyses different actions that make up the intelligence technique, or the ‘intelligence cycle’, with a spotlight on adjustments led to through exterior advancements within the overseas area, comparable to expertise and safeguard threats. Drawing jointly a number key thinkers within the box, The way forward for Intelligence examines attainable eventualities for destiny advancements, together with estimations approximately their plausibility, and the potential outcomes for the functioning of intelligence and safeguard services.

This e-book may be of a lot curiosity to scholars of intelligence experiences, strategic reviews, international coverage, safeguard reports and IR often.

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Both Hulnick and Omand argue that the intelligence cycle model does not aptly describe the working processes in the world of civilian intelligence. Hulnick consequently recommends replacing it with a more realistic matrix model in which collection, research and analysis, counterintelligence and covert action operate simultaneously. This is more a recommendation for the present rather than the future, although he certainly has a point (shared with Omand) that in the electronic era decision-makers will act increasingly upon raw intelligence rather than wait for a finished product, and that the conversion from raw into finished intelligence may become increasingly auto-mated (Warner 2012: 146).

Intelligence very rarely deals in certainties, and it will continue to be incomplete, fragmentary and sometimes wrong. But the argument in favour of intelligence work is that used systematically and sensibly it will improve the odds on a decision being the best possible in the circumstances, whether by a National Security Council, foreign policy official, border policeman or military commander. The overall outcome will therefore likely be better than if the decisions had been made using hunch or instinct, valuable as these are, or just by the toss of a coin.

2005) ‘Terrorism and Intelligence Reform’, in D. ), Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Online. p­df (accessed 3 March 2013). K. ), Handbook of Intelligence Studies, London/New York: Routledge. J. (1997) ‘Kalm temidden van woedende golven’. Het ministerie van Kolonien en zijn taakomgeving 1912–1940, The Hague: Sdu. —— (2012a) Intelligence revolution. , Breda: Nederlandse Defensie Akademie. —— (2012b) De ontbrekende dimensie: intelligence binnen de Studie van internationale betrekkingen, Utrecht: Universiteit van Utrecht.

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